A study suggests that the Arctic "may be essentially ice-free during summer within 15 years."
一项研讨显现，北极“在15年内或许会在夏日基本无冰”。
The study used statistical models to predict the future amount of Arctic ice, which suggested that the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer during the decade of the 2030s – most likely in the year 2034.
该研讨使用计算模型猜测了北极冰层的未来数量，标明在21世纪30年代的十年里，极有很大的或许是在2034年，北极或许会在夏日无冰。
Sea ice is frozen ocean water that melts each summer, then refreezes each winter. The amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic has been steadily shrinking over the past few decades because of global warming. It reached its second-smallest level on record in 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.
海冰是冻住的海水，每年夏日消融，然后每年冬天从头冻住。因为全球变暖，曩昔几十年来，北极夏日海冰的数量一直在稳步削减。美国国家海洋和大气管理局说，2019年北极夏日海冰水平仅次于前史最低记载。
Sea ice affects Arctic communities and wildlife such as polar bears and walruses, and it helps regulate the planet’s temperature by influencing the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean.
海冰影响到北极群落以及北极熊和海象等野生动物，并经过影响大气和海洋环流来协助调理地球温度。
"The extent of Arctic ice is important to Arctic peoples, whose lands are being affected by increased coastal erosion," NOAA said in a statement. "Conversely, the disappearance of ice creates economic opportunities, including the opening of oil fields and new shipping routes."
美国国家海洋和大气管理局在一份声明中说：“北极冰层的规模对北极区域的居民来说很重要，他们的土地正遭到海岸腐蚀加重的影响。反过来，冰的消失发明了经济机会，包含拓荒油田和新航道。”
It also affects global weather patterns.
北极冰层消失还影响到了全球的气候形式。
The study was conducted by scientists at NOAA, the University of Washington, and the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.
这项研讨是由国家海洋和大气管理局、华盛顿大学和北卡罗莱纳气候研讨所的科学家进行的。
What scientists refer to as the first "ice-free" Arctic summer year will occur when the Arctic has less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice. The thick ice sheets surrounding Canada’s Arctic islands are likely to remain for much longer, even in summer.
科学家所说的首个“无冰”北极夏日的年份将出现在北极海冰缺乏100万平方公里的时分。加拿大北极岛屿周围的厚冰原很或许会存留更长时刻，即便是在夏日。
As the climate changes, the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Arctic air temperatures were about 3.4 degrees above average in 2019, and were the second-warmest since records began in 1900.
跟着气候发作改动，北极的变暖速度是全球其他区域的两倍多。2019年北极的气温比平均水平高出约3.4度，是1900年开端记载以来温度第二高的年份。
Scientists also said the results of the study indicate that there is room for improvement in sea-ice models – and that the ice may disappear even more quickly than current models suggest.
科学家还表明，研讨结果标明，海冰模型还有改善地步——海冰消失的速度乃至或许比现有模型显现的还要快。
"Climate models may be collectively underestimating the rate of change,” the authors write in the study.
科学家们在研讨报告中写道：“气候模型或许都轻视了改变的速度。”
The study was published in the journalClimate.
该研讨宣布在《气候》期刊上。
